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Conservative political commentator Charlie Sykes says the race could go either way

AYESHA RASCOE, HOST:

The Presidential race is tight with no commanding lead for either candidate. The opportunity for a breakout moment could happen at the debate this week - or not. To help us break it all down, we have political commentator Charlie Sykes. Welcome to the program.

CHARLIE SYKES: Good morning.

RASCOE: Charlie, the last time you were here, President Joe Biden was still in the race, and here's what you said.

(SOUNDBITE OF ARCHIVED NPR BROADCAST)

SYKES: This sort of feels like this death march to November at this point. The vast majority of Americans are just they're exhausted by this. They are disillusioned by having, you know, two old white guys on the ballot.

RASCOE: Just a few hours later, Biden stepped aside as a nominee. Maybe he was listening to you. I don't know. But it's a very different race now. But it's still extremely close. What does that tell you about the U.S. electorate right now?

SYKES: Well, that is the paradox, because, of course, the race is completely transformed, you know, since that conversation, you obviously have much greater enthusiasm level among Democrats. But but as you point out, we are still deadlocked. This is a country that is deeply, deeply divided with an electorate that is very entrenched and immovable. The big question, of course, as you raised, is, will this week's debate make a difference? The last debate obviously transformed 2024. So we need to be prepared for a bumpy ride over the next two months.

RASCOE: So, as you said, you know, look, all eyes are going to be on the debate Tuesday. But this time, preside, former President Donald Trump is going to be debating a woman of color, a former prosecutor. How does that change the dynamic for Trump? And what are the risks for him?

SYKES: Well, the risks for Donald Trump are mainly Donald Trump? Will Trump be Trump? Will he be able to control himself? Will he show the kind of discipline that he has not shown so far in this campaign. You listen to the kinds of things he's been saying on the stump, and they are kind of rambling all over the place. His aides have been telling him stick to substance, stick to policy, but he just cannot seem to break away from his pension for personal insults. So, I guess, the big question is, you know, which Donald Trump is going to show up? And because I don't think that he has debated somebody quite as experienced as Kamala Harris is on the debate stage. Now she has her own challenges, but I think that the big question is going to be that Donald Trump is not going to have 81-year-old Joe Biden as the foil this time.

RASCOE: What do you think Vice President Harris needs to do in this debate? And what should she not do?

SYKES: Well, what she needs to do is to continue to introduce herself to the American people, to be able to convince the American people that she is not the caricature that Donald Trump is painting. And I think that what she needs not to do is not to allow Donald Trump to drag her down into sort of a tit-for-tat insult. You know, he obviously would love have a mud wrestling with her in terms of invective. And I think what she needs to do is continue to do what she's done in the past, which is to brush that off and say, OK, you know what? I don't want to engage in this kind of rhetoric. I don't want to relitigate the past. I want to look toward the future, and then articulate what in fact that is, and hopefully create a contrast between her forward looking substance and Donald Trump's, well, whatever it is that Donald Trump is doing these days.

RASCOE: You know, Trump has been all over the place on the abortion issue, and you know, where he stands on a federal ban, and he's also called for IVF to be free for everyone. As a longtime conservative, what do you make of those flip flops? And do you think they'll have an impact on the debate?

SYKES: Well, it will be interesting to see how that plays out. Look, the flip-flops remind us that Donald Trump has - is a man of really no principle. I mean, Donald Trump has no core beliefs beyond sort of a belief in himself. So, every time he talks about abortion, you know that he's basically checking a box. He has not thought deeply about any of these issues. Remember back in 2016, when Chris Matthews asked him, well, should women be jailed if they have an abortion? And he said, yes. Well, That, of course, was also an indication that he hadn't spent 5 seconds actually thinking about it. And I think that that's something to keep in mind that Donald Trump really has no core beliefs when it comes to this. And this is going to be a challenge for Kamala Harris to point out his flip-flops, but also his perchant for just making stuff up.

RASCOE: That's political commentator Charlie Sykes. Thank you so much for joining us.

SYKES: Thank you so much. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.

NPR transcripts are created on a rush deadline by an NPR contractor. This text may not be in its final form and may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability may vary. The authoritative record of NPR’s programming is the audio record.

Ayesha Rascoe is a White House correspondent for NPR. She is currently covering her third presidential administration. Rascoe's White House coverage has included a number of high profile foreign trips, including President Trump's 2019 summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in Hanoi, Vietnam, and President Obama's final NATO summit in Warsaw, Poland in 2016. As a part of the White House team, she's also a regular on the NPR Politics Podcast.