AILSA CHANG, HOST:
Murder numbers are falling dramatically in the U.S. after a surge in 2020 and 2021. City officials often point to policing as a key reason, and that can play an important role, but crime analysts say there's more to it. NPR criminal justice reporter Meg Anderson reports.
MEG ANDERSON, BYLINE: When murders decrease, the police are often the first to take note. In Detroit, city officials say homicides are the lowest they've been since 1965. Police Chief Todd Bettison says he's seen a huge difference in officer wellbeing.
TODD BETTISON: They're not drinking from a fire hose - if you can imagine trying to get a drink of water from a fire hose, with all that water coming in.
ANDERSON: Detroit is not alone. The number of murders is plummeting nationwide. In 2024, murders fell at least 14% across the country. That's according to the data firm AH Datalytics and other think tanks. Official FBI data only goes through 2023, but shows similar drops. And early data from AH Datalytics suggests the drop could be even bigger in 2025.
JEFF ASHER: We're seeing really not just declines, but large declines and large across-the-board declines. I mean, it's everywhere.
ANDERSON: Jeff Asher is co-founder of AH Datalytics. Generally, he says, crime goes up and down by only a few percentage points each year.
ASHER: You think about a really large ship - it doesn't turn fast. These things don't change fast.
ANDERSON: And yet, they have. Asher and other analysts have zeroed in on an explanation - COVID. All of a sudden, you had a lot of young people, who are more likely to commit crimes than older people, at home with nothing to do. And a vital support system got ripped away - public services. Between March and May of 2020, the country's local government workforce shrank by nearly 10%.
JOHN ROMAN: They're the biggest employer of teachers. They employ coaches and counselors and aides and all the people that young people connect with.
ANDERSON: John Roman is with NORC, a research group at the University of Chicago.
ROMAN: They employ physical health, mental health, behavioral health providers. And they fund all the local programming in the area.
ANDERSON: Five years later, local government employment is finally back at pre-pandemic levels. Municipalities are bringing in more money, and their spending has gone up, too. That means many services are coming back, and with them, places where young people can find support. In Detroit, Police Chief Bettison credits some of the city's murder decline to changes in policing techniques and higher officer staffing levels. But he also sees it as a citywide team effort.
BETTISON: It's not one thing that drives violence, and so we are always consistently looking for the root causes.
ANDERSON: Two years ago, the city invested $10 million in six community organizations. Each group was assigned a section of the city. Their goal was to reduce violence in that area. Negus Vu leads one of those groups. He says their staff focuses on building relationships with young people.
NEGUS VU: And because these relationships are genuine and sincere, they're able to refer them to get wraparound services such as substance abuse, job referrals, therapy.
ANDERSON: If you meet people's needs, he says, they're less likely to turn to violence. A year after the initiative started, all six groups had seen fewer shootings and homicides in their regions than the citywide average.
VU: We've shown collectively that what we're doing is impactful, effective and is saving lives.
ANDERSON: But their funding came from the American Rescue Plan Act - the stimulus bill passed in 2021. That money will go away at the end of this summer. The city is funding the program through next summer and pushing the state to enact a public safety trust fund to fully fund the work.
Meg Anderson, NPR News.
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