LEILA FADEL, HOST:
Holly Dagres has been following the protests in Iran, grew up in Iran and is a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. She also curates a weekly newsletter called The Iranist and she joins me now. Good morning, and welcome to the program.
HOLLY DAGRES: Thank you for having me.
FADEL: You know, Holly, I just want to start by asking you about your family in Iran with the communications blackout. When was the last you heard from them? Do you know how they are?
DAGRES: Well, the communications blackout started on Thursday night in Iran. And so it's basically been Thursday since we've heard from them, and it's not just me. It's Iranians across the diaspora around the world. I know that some people have been able to get a hold of their families and friends. There's been messages pouring in from Starlink if you have a friend, a neighbor or a family member, but that's only 50- to 60,000 users across a country of 90 million. So effectively, much of the country, we don't know what's happening inside, and we're all relying on Starlink.
FADEL: This moment - these mass protests, do these feel different than what we've seen before? You know, given that Iran has been weakened on the global stage - its regional militias that it backs, Hezbollah, Hamas, have been severely decimated. I mean, and now the U.S. is threatening to strike because of Iran's deadly crackdown on protests. Does it feel different?
DAGRES: We say this every time there's a protest that it's different, but you highlighted very eloquently why it is this time because of those issues from the outside. And I would say that, really, the sword of Damocles is hanging over the head of the Islamic Republic, and that's the United States and Israel and whether they are planning to act. But I think it's important to note that since 2022, the Woman, Life, Freedom uprising, I mean, and even before it, there's this - a consistent call for the overthrow of the Islamic Republic.
And it's evident through the chants of the people because there's a sense that the systemic mismanagement, corruption and repression is not going to change. It - the regime is irredeemable and irreformable. And it's not something that I just say, but we have activists on the ground, like Nobel Laureate Narges Mohammadi, who is now in solitary confinement, who said that this is really, right now, a fight between the survivalists of the regime and the overthrowers of the regime. So I think it's important to note that where we're at in terms of how the people inside the country feel.
FADEL: So many protesters have been killed - 500 by some estimates at this point. I mean, how does this violence compare to what we've seen when the regime has reacted in the past to protests?
DAGRES: Well, that is the officially confirmed number. There's credible documentation that there's been 2,000 killed, and that's considered a conservative estimate. Given that there's a blackout, it's really hard to see what's happening on the ground. And it's important to note that the regime purposely turns off communications so the world doesn't get to see what's happening, but because they've committed mass atrocities like that before, in 2019 during the 20 - November protests, it's known as Bloody November. They killed 1,500 protesters, according to Reuters. And, of course, crimes against humanity were committed during the 2022 uprising, according to the U.N. fact-finding mission.
FADEL: Would Iranians want American intervention?
DAGRES: Right now, what Iranians want are two things - they want to have access to the world. I think it's important that they have some sort of access through Direct-to-Cell, which is provided by Starlink, which is for their cellphones. If they have a 2020 cellphone onwards, that gives them access to Starlink directly. But more importantly, they want a democratic transition. They've been calling for this regime to go for a long time.
We've had activists on the ground talk about a constitutional assembly, talk about a referendum, and even Narges Mohammadi's talked about a transition. We've also heard a call for a transition from the outside as well, from former Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi, who's offered himself as a transitional leader. I think the international community should be listening to these calls and - that are evident in the streets.
FADEL: And what do you make of this most recent news, the president -President Trump saying that Iran has reached out for a meeting, for negotiations?
DAGRES: Well, quite frankly, it's disturbing because if he was to make some sort of deal, and I think of Venezuela in this context, though those are very two different countries, he'd be throwing the Iranian people, who are currently risking their lives for freedom, and much of the country under the bus. And that really worries me. And I know a lot of Iranians, before the internet shutdown, watching the events in Venezuela were concerned that something similar might be their fate.
FADEL: Holly Dagres with the Washington Institute for Near East Policy and The Iranist newsletter. Thank you very much for your time and your insights.
DAGRES: Thank you. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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