STEVE INSKEEP, HOST:
Ali Vaez has been listening with us. He directs the Iran Project at the International Crisis Group. We called him at the start of this week after President Trump said the Iran deal was largely negotiated, and now we follow up at the end of the week. Mr. Vaez, welcome back.
ALI VAEZ: Good morning, Steve.
INSKEEP: Is the agreement largely negotiated now?
VAEZ: That appears to be the case. I think there might still be some differences over some of the wording of the text of the agreement, but it appears to be largely done.
INSKEEP: OK. So we have reports of extending a - the ceasefire, in a sense, for 60 days under a memorandum of understanding. What would that do?
VAEZ: So this is a one-page document that basically does a few critical things. One is that it would end the war in a comprehensive manner, not just between Iran and the U.S. and Israel, but also is supposed to extend to Lebanon, as you had in your report. And then it would also see the process of reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, this critical choke point for the global economy. Iran would lift its own blockade, and the U.S. would also lift gradually its blockade of Iranian ports. It would also have a nonaggression understanding between Iran and the United States, which would implicitly apply to their allies in the region. And it would basically describe the direction of travel in terms of how both sides want to resolve the nuclear issue without getting too much into the technical details and would allow both sides 60 days renewable to negotiate the details of a comprehensive nuclear deal.
INSKEEP: Ah, 60 days renewable. So this could just go on and on and on, maybe for the better if it means no war.
VAEZ: Correct. I think this is the best off-ramp from a road that should not have been taken to begin with. But let's be honest. It took 2 1/2 years, about 10 years ago, to negotiate a nuclear deal with Iran. Now, with issues being so much more complicated, with trust being so much lower than was the case in the past, it is unrealistic and too ambitious to have a deal in a 60-day window. But again, because it's renewable, I think the parties would have the time and space to try to negotiate a deal.
INSKEEP: Help me understand one part of this, though. You said that part of this deal has to be a comprehensive peace through the region, and that includes no more war in Lebanon. Israel has said it doesn't agree with that. It wants to continue its invasion of Lebanon and its attacks on Hezbollah. Does that mean that Israel is able to veto this deal?
VAEZ: It does provide Israel with the ability to undermine the agreement, maybe not at the beginning because at the beginning, President Trump can twist Prime Minister Netanyahu's arms to force him to pull the plug on confrontation with Hezbollah, end the war in Lebanon. But of course, because none of the problems are fundamentally resolved, it is quite possible that a few weeks from now or a few months from now, Israel would resume its attacks against Hezbollah. That would destabilize the ceasefire. But if the Iranians are benefiting from it, I doubt that they would withdraw from this understanding with the United States.
There's been many years of direct Israeli-Hezbollah fighting, which Iran was not involved in. This time was different because Hezbollah came to Iran's rescue. But if this war is over, then we can go back to status quo ante. Then maybe a few weeks or months down the road, if there is another confrontation in Lebanon, it will be a bilateral issue between Israel and Lebanon.
INSKEEP: And not involve the United States. Interesting. Now, the United States has said there are a few things that they must have. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told reporters yesterday that President Trump wants these things. Let's listen.
(SOUNDBITE OF ARCHIVED RECORDING)
SCOTT BESSENT: Iran has to turn over their highly enriched uranium. They cannot pursue a nuclear weapon. And the Strait of Hormuz, back to your question on energy, has to free transit. Navigation of the seas has to be free and open, as it was before.
INSKEEP: From what you're telling me, it sounds like some of those demands are, at best, put off. The Strait of Hormuz is going to remain ambiguous because Iran is right there, and you're saying they have agreed to continue talking about Iran's nuclear program rather than make some commitment on it.
VAEZ: That is correct. There's only so much you can get in a one-page agreement. And these are some of the headlines, not containing the details that are required for their implementation. For instance, Iran would say that it would dispose of the stockpile of highly enriched uranium, but the mechanism, the schedule and how it's going to be done, it's going to be negotiated later on. And remember, Steve, that in the first 30 days that the strait is supposed to open up, they have to do minesweeping. And in that period, traffic would have to go through Iranian territorial waters, so Iran would remain in control.
INSKEEP: Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group. Thanks, as always, for your insights, this time at the beginning and the end of the week - appreciate it.
VAEZ: My pleasure. Thank you. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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