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Losing to win

In professional sports, tanking means losing on purpose this season to gain a top draft pick next year. Although it disgraces the integrity of the game, some teams try to lose in order to win.

In American sports, a “generational talent” may be headed to your league next year, so a poor start may incentivize tanking the rest of the season. Quarterback Peyton Manning led the Indianapolis Colts to nine consecutive winning campaigns, including a Super Bowl win. But neck surgery sidelined him for the entire 2011 season. Meanwhile, Stanford-University quarterback Andrew Luck was the most coveted college player since… Peyton Manning.

Colts fans clamored for the club to lose intentionally because the worst team chooses first in the NFL draft. They called the campaign “suck for Luck.” Not only did the offense deteriorate without Manning, somehow so did the defense. They “earned” the top draft pick after losing 14 of 16 games. The Colts showed Manning the door, figuring that Andrew Luck would be just as good as the damaged future hall-of-famer.

How did that work out for them? Although Luck played well, Manning stormed back from injury, setting a myriad of league passing records for the Denver Broncos. In fact, the old man went on to win more playoff games with Denver, including another Super Bowl, than Luck did his entire pro career. But that’s just one example.

Scottish researcher Wray Vamplew reviewed studies on multiple sports. In all of them, teams that tanked failed to become more competitive subsequently. The losers just kept on losing, even in the National Basketball Association before they created a draft lottery to discourage the practice. A smarter idea? Do your best. Research agrees with the late-great football coach Dan Reeves. He said teams that lose in order to gain high draft picks succeed—year after year.

I’m Jeff Gentry

 

Best reference:

Vamplew, W. (2018). Tanking, Shirking, and Running Dead: The Role of Economics and Large Data Sets in Identifying Competition Corruption and its Causes. The International Journal of the History of Sport, 35(2–3), 141–156.

 

Dumb Ideas that Changed the World copyright 2024 by Jeff Gentry. All rights reserved.

Host of Dumb Ideas the Changed the World
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